Q2'11 updates

QE2 is expiring in 5 days. Will the good days be bygone? Que sera sera.
Let's see what's on the platter.

5106 AXREIT

Still lingering at RM2.40 level. Sleepy cow :) 
AXREIT has been know to be late riser. Things should warm up entering August. RM2.80 target price maintained.

Dividend in H1 2011:
Ex 31/01/2011 Final distribution of 5.25 sen per unit
Ex 11/05/2011 First interim distribution of 4.20 sen per unit

There were a flurry of acquisitions and a disposition completions in the first half. Expect this to trickle in from Q3 2011 reporting onwards.
What I am really looking forward to is the implementation of DRIP or Dividend Re-Investment Plan with expected completion in Q3'11. What had been happening in the past was new units representing 20% of existing shares were placed out to institutional big boys. In a sense, there were dilution of earnings to existing shareholders, but AXREIT management has done a doubly good job in value creation which more than negated the dilution. With the DRIP in place, existing shareholders can continue to participates in the non-diluted growth while the AXREIT management can capitalised on the fund for new acquisitions or carrying out value added improvements on existing properties with minimum drawdown on loan facilities.
It is a win-win proposition.



5127 ARREIT

Moving sideway. Fly swatting first half of 2011.

Dividend in H1 2011:
Ex 25/02/2011 Final distribution of 1.6741 sen per unit
Ex 09/06/2011 First interim distribution of 1.812 sen per unit



5878 KPJ

RM4.60 target met. Setting sight on year end RM5.00 target.

Dividend in H1 2011:
Ex 23/03/2011 Distribution of 5.00 sen per unit
Ex 28/06/2011 Distribution of 2.40 sen per unit



1155 MAYBANK

Swapped CIMB for Maybank.



4308 SUNWAY

Property/construction/merger play. Did a quick short at 2.71  :p
Merger progressing smoothly with expected completion in Q3'11. Target price of RM2.87, 3.00.



5031 TIMECOM

My most recent addition. Time dotCom is trading at PE of 16.3x at RM0.73. Looking to add position on any further weakness. TIMECOM made three significant announcements in the first half of 2011 pertaining DIGI, ASTRO and capital reduction. Quarterly revenues and EPS is on uptick.
RM1.00 target within next 2~3 quarters.



0009 YTLE

Telco play. YTLE's fortune will be closely linked to the success of YTLPOWR/YES. Did a recent entry at the penny threshold. Will add position on further weakness.
YES coverage is at 65% with target 80% coverage by Q4 2011. Potential bumps in the next two quarterly reports stripping out the start-up loss.



6742 YTLPOWR

Telco/power play. EPF, and to a lesser extend ASB have been doing serious accumulation recently at RM2.14~2.20 level. The mark-up phase might have started on the last 3 candles.
YES earnings or potential earnings have not been reflected in the analysts reports. Expect that to change in the next two quarters. In the mean time, accumulate at low levels and make do with the temporary suppressed 5% yield which is ain't too shabby.



5176 SUNREIT

EPF has been accumulating SUNREIT at RM1.04~1.10 level for the past month. I have no clue what gives. But monkey see monkey do. Mark-up phase might have started.
I am looking at RM1.20 year-end target.

Dividend in H1 2011:
Ex 11/02/11 Distribution of 1.75 sen per unit
Ex 16/05/11 Distribution of 1.70 sen per unit



5116 ALAQAR

Hospital REIT. The slowest and dullest in my REIT universe, but is to be expected. All acquisitions are PRTs. Mature hospitals injected in by KPJ to unlock values. Call it a "REIT diversification/portfolio balancing".

Dividend in H1 2011:
Ex 23/03/2011 Distribution of 3.30 sen per unit



WATCH LIST:
0823EA CIMBC25 - KLCI & Hang Seng index ETF
--> Index trading when opportunity arises

7231 WELLCAL
--> Still waiting patiently to enter at floor level. Gives double digits yield.

1368 FABER
--> Trade counter. Starting to move on last 2 candles. Bullets reserve is a bit low currently to take position. Watch from sideline.

Happy 2011 !!

Well, how not to be happy with KLCI posting 3 white fat candles in first 3 days of trading in 2011  ;p
Close both eyes and throw a dart, you'll most likely hit something with decent gain. But having said that, gainers is decreasing compared to 1st and 2nd day despite the extra heavy volume today. That gotta tell something about the across board sentiment spread.

With lower end 2011 KLCI target of 1622 and KLCI hitting 1571 on day 3 of 2011, that leaves 51 pts to go for the rest of the year. wow! wow! But that's just 30 blue counters we are talking about. That leaves us with the 1000++ other counters. Back to the gainers spread. Stocking picking will be key moving forward. At least I have 12/13 counters in my watchlist today registering GREEN. Some really GREEN. One yellow.

Not much change in portfolio going into the new year. Been doing some top slicings and shorts. Dabble with Forex game. My two darling counters AXREIT and KPJ did well for 2010.

In summary (3 anchors + 3 satellites):
- AXREIT met my fair value of RM2.40 giving a 2010 40% Cap+Div gain. 2011 guide is 25% Cap+Div gain with RM2.40 reference and RM2.80 target. Modify "compounding" plan. Instead of compounding Div back into AXREIT, expanded into SUNREIT and ALAQAR.

- KPJ registered at 63% Cap gain from RM2.30 to RM3.75 (on adjusted chart) ++ the shorts (aka sell high, buy low) along the way. 2011 guide of RM4.60

- ARREIT. Entered only in 2H2010. Ended 2010 with RM0.935 closing. Registered 10% Cap+Div gain. Expecting price to go above RM1.00 with PKNS properties injection due for completion in 2011. Above RM1.15 to be more specific.

- CIMBC25. Entered Q42010. Shorted for 4% Cap at end of 2010.

- YTLPOWR. Entered Q42010. Did a few shorts to lower down average entry. Too lazy to calculate the gain, but about there.

- BJTOTO. Enter 2H2010. Disposed for paltry 3% gain. And it shot up to RM4.50 not long after that... !#~%$^_^(*&%$ !!

Looking forward into 2011. Removed CIMB from radar. Dabble into SUNREIT. Entered ALAQAR on weakness. Loves Finger Licking Good. Watching SUNWAY drama. Continue top slicing and shortings, maybe doing a trade or two.

 Happy 2011 !!

Trading idea

Scable. Entry around RM1.21. R&R tilts slightly to reward at +4%, +10%. Can use step-lock profit strategy. Downside -10%.

 Bursa. Entry around RM7.43

 CIMB. Entry around RM7.90~8.10. Requires extreme patience. Still possible to enter at that region. Have a look at KFC in the mean time... sweet   ;p

Time - Opportunity or Cost ?

For a small fry $$ is always limited. Unless small fry can find a 1001% sure win goreng counter that will shoot up 1000% in a few days for small fry to dump small fry's entire saving in, heck, and contra twice that amount for 3000% return. Of course, volume must be high to nicely enter and exit. And probably that counter will be a PN17 worth maybe 0.5 sen a share at entry.

Which bring us to the topic of "time". Opportunity or cost? So the wise sage no.1 says, "you need time to reap the profit of your trade/investment". '"nod" "nod". "a-huh". Wise sage no.2 says, "you need to time your trade/investment to reap the profit. "nod" "nod". "a-huh". Huh?

In the confusion, I let BJTOTO slept for too long, taxing me in opportunity cost. After I decided to let go, CIMB has past my entry target of Rm8.00. The lowest it touched is about RM8.30. Yesterday was doing RM8.70 + RM0.13 tier 1 dividend. Yesterday BJTOTO also hit RM4.28, up 10 sen from my exit price 'chasing' after CIMB. The decision was not wrong in a sense that over the period CIMB gain 53 sen ver BJTOTO's 10 sen. Just that I was not sufficiently agressive going long in CIMB.

So, is time opportunity or cost? Or is it opportunity cost? Or cost of opportunity? Heck. English can be so darn confusing. Can't blame the Malaysians for coming up with Manglish, and the Ah Bengs (and Ah Lians) thier Singlish. And that is also why 90% lose money in share market. Huh?

Quick Bite

Finally got rid of BJTOTO. Can't wait anymore for the move. The 16sen dividend netted ain't too shabby, translating to 7.+% pa. Looking for entry into CIMB. 8.00 or below is possible.

Scalped YTLPOWR for another 9sen nett. Effective entry further reduced from 2.24 to 2.15. Looking for opportunity to redeploy the "repaid" 15sen capital. YTLPOWR may retest 2.55 support.

Did not manage to re-enter KPJ. Retracement shallower than expected. Did not reach re-entry price. Remained 3/4 KPJ position in portfolio. Continue to monitor. Further retracement is still possible.

AXREIT. Sustained buying interest for the 8th week in a row. Will it make a break for 2.60? 26sen shy.

ARREIT. Weakness in chart. Retracement to 0.860~0.900 possible. 

CIMBX25/Hang Seng. In retracement mode. Rebounce at FB38%. See if it can take out FB23%. Else will consider reducing position. Head-shoulder-head?

Punting idea - Talam, KPJ; YTL Power

Did 2 rounds of profitable punts on Talam few moons back. I think Talam is prime for another quick punt. Yes, punt. I won't even call it a trade. But I am not going to enter any position this time.

But I did place a QS to take some position off KPJ. I don't like too much how the chart is forming. Time will tell... soon.

YTL Power went down from FB38% 2.60 to FB61% 2.50. Need to see more, looking for potential trade entry. 15min and 30min ticks, EOD time frame.

Quick Bite - YTLPOWER

Yes, I have been quiet for more than a month. That's what happens when you stop skimming charts nightly for trades. LOL. I actually passed up LIONIND and SCABLE which have been on my trade list since early Sept after bottom was found, screaming BUY ME! BUY ME! I have no regrets. None. Was already winding up my trades and rebalancing the portfolio back then.

YTLPOWER did a sprint, caught me by surprised. Went home and took a good look at the 15min, 30min and 1 hr tick charts; and the EOD and weekly charts. Scan the web a little bit for possible rumours or announcements. None. I think the 15min and 30min charts are more telling... manage to scalped 6sen nett the next day. My hypothetical average entry is now 2.24, down from 2.30. I don't think YTLPOWER is done yet. Watch the chart. Now at FB38% fast frame.