Trading idea

Scable. Entry around RM1.21. R&R tilts slightly to reward at +4%, +10%. Can use step-lock profit strategy. Downside -10%.

 Bursa. Entry around RM7.43

 CIMB. Entry around RM7.90~8.10. Requires extreme patience. Still possible to enter at that region. Have a look at KFC in the mean time... sweet   ;p

Time - Opportunity or Cost ?

For a small fry $$ is always limited. Unless small fry can find a 1001% sure win goreng counter that will shoot up 1000% in a few days for small fry to dump small fry's entire saving in, heck, and contra twice that amount for 3000% return. Of course, volume must be high to nicely enter and exit. And probably that counter will be a PN17 worth maybe 0.5 sen a share at entry.

Which bring us to the topic of "time". Opportunity or cost? So the wise sage no.1 says, "you need time to reap the profit of your trade/investment". '"nod" "nod". "a-huh". Wise sage no.2 says, "you need to time your trade/investment to reap the profit. "nod" "nod". "a-huh". Huh?

In the confusion, I let BJTOTO slept for too long, taxing me in opportunity cost. After I decided to let go, CIMB has past my entry target of Rm8.00. The lowest it touched is about RM8.30. Yesterday was doing RM8.70 + RM0.13 tier 1 dividend. Yesterday BJTOTO also hit RM4.28, up 10 sen from my exit price 'chasing' after CIMB. The decision was not wrong in a sense that over the period CIMB gain 53 sen ver BJTOTO's 10 sen. Just that I was not sufficiently agressive going long in CIMB.

So, is time opportunity or cost? Or is it opportunity cost? Or cost of opportunity? Heck. English can be so darn confusing. Can't blame the Malaysians for coming up with Manglish, and the Ah Bengs (and Ah Lians) thier Singlish. And that is also why 90% lose money in share market. Huh?

Quick Bite

Finally got rid of BJTOTO. Can't wait anymore for the move. The 16sen dividend netted ain't too shabby, translating to 7.+% pa. Looking for entry into CIMB. 8.00 or below is possible.

Scalped YTLPOWR for another 9sen nett. Effective entry further reduced from 2.24 to 2.15. Looking for opportunity to redeploy the "repaid" 15sen capital. YTLPOWR may retest 2.55 support.

Did not manage to re-enter KPJ. Retracement shallower than expected. Did not reach re-entry price. Remained 3/4 KPJ position in portfolio. Continue to monitor. Further retracement is still possible.

AXREIT. Sustained buying interest for the 8th week in a row. Will it make a break for 2.60? 26sen shy.

ARREIT. Weakness in chart. Retracement to 0.860~0.900 possible. 

CIMBX25/Hang Seng. In retracement mode. Rebounce at FB38%. See if it can take out FB23%. Else will consider reducing position. Head-shoulder-head?

Punting idea - Talam, KPJ; YTL Power

Did 2 rounds of profitable punts on Talam few moons back. I think Talam is prime for another quick punt. Yes, punt. I won't even call it a trade. But I am not going to enter any position this time.

But I did place a QS to take some position off KPJ. I don't like too much how the chart is forming. Time will tell... soon.

YTL Power went down from FB38% 2.60 to FB61% 2.50. Need to see more, looking for potential trade entry. 15min and 30min ticks, EOD time frame.

Quick Bite - YTLPOWER

Yes, I have been quiet for more than a month. That's what happens when you stop skimming charts nightly for trades. LOL. I actually passed up LIONIND and SCABLE which have been on my trade list since early Sept after bottom was found, screaming BUY ME! BUY ME! I have no regrets. None. Was already winding up my trades and rebalancing the portfolio back then.

YTLPOWER did a sprint, caught me by surprised. Went home and took a good look at the 15min, 30min and 1 hr tick charts; and the EOD and weekly charts. Scan the web a little bit for possible rumours or announcements. None. I think the 15min and 30min charts are more telling... manage to scalped 6sen nett the next day. My hypothetical average entry is now 2.24, down from 2.30. I don't think YTLPOWER is done yet. Watch the chart. Now at FB38% fast frame.

Three years plan

BJTOTO finally goes EX on 06-Oct-2010 for 8 sen tier 1. Will be looking for opportunity to offload this counter. I do not think sin sector is a place to stay invested for the moment. The current Fed does not like sin sector too well. But looking at the way V.Tan has been "accumulating" BJTOTO shares, surely this babe still has got it? Me? I am just waiting for the frying to start proper. But will patiently monitor the quarterly reports and sin sector development - caveat emptor.

KLCI moves in interesting way. The last few candles are interesting. Infact, the last 2 candles are mighty interesting. My cat sense is telling me KLCI is going to test recent high.

Oh, right. The three years plan. Finally completed my portfolio rebalancing. Took me 3 years to re-couped my more than 50% capital loss, or internment tuition fee if you will. But it was pretty taxing having to monitor the market and skimming through charts every night, planning and executing trades. And to continue with this strategy will also means either increasing trade size risk or frequency of trades to maintain fund's return as the capital base increases.

With that in mind, I am rolling out my next three years plan with the aim of doubling my capital base in 3 years, Warren Buffet style. I have got this affinity to "3". Just to kick-off, I will create a simple reference for benchmarking with last done price, with weightage assigned.

3 primary anchors:
AXREIT - 1500 units @2.18
ARREIT - 3000 units @0.90
KPJ        - 1000 units @3.52

3 secondary satellites:
CIMBX25   - 500 units @1.055
YTLPOWR - 200 units @2.30
BJTOTO - to be re-deployed into financial sector to complete the satellites formation.

+ 10% Cash - should irresistable offer comes along. Pity I did not manage to scoop any DIGI when it plunged to RM21 !! LOL.

So what's out the window? The nightly charts skimming. The scrutiny of news, reports and recommendations covering the what-not counters. These ain't great conversation materials to start with, but a magnet for "what to buy?". And time consuming.

So what's in? Quarterly reviews and minor rebalancing as needed. Macro and economic policies follow up. Making sure my investment assumptions are still valid. Daily quick chart review of the chosen 3+3. Occasional charts skimming.

So let's see what goodies 'Jib got for me come 15-Oct...

Still feeling groggy

23 Sep 2010, 9am sharp. Took out my branch trimmer started snipping away the deadwoods. Plucks some low hanging fruits for a snack. And the bull hit the sack.

The next few days, planted a few new seeds, give 'em a good watering. Starting to germinate. Waiting for a good harvest come the harvesting season.

It is an art. There is no exact science about it. It is about tilting the odds in your favour. Once you lost your mojo, once you can no longer read the lines clearly, once you don't like how the story is unfolding, then the odds are no longer in your favour. Best to reduce positions and re-assess the situation. Feel the mojo.

I think the bull has woke up from his little nap, but still feeling a bit groggy. Perhaps will laze around munching grass before trotting on. Up or down, that is the question.